有点啰嗦。。。印象最深刻的是要用scenario planning and to assign probability to each scenario来做决定，think about bull and bear cases and what can lead to those cases. 十分留意避免tilt (就是在不利的情况下情绪化的状态），尽量把自己放置于一个客观的有diversified views的小组里面交换思维地去思考而不是fall into the trap of confirmation bias and hindsight。
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